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Zhu Min explains why IMF improving China's forecast

CCTV.com

04-16-2016 12:52 BJT

International Monetary Fund has increased its GDP growth expectations for China to understand why, CCTV held an exclusive interview with Zhu Min, the deputy managing director of the IMF.

In the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the organization increased China's forecast by 0.2 percent, while lowering that of world and developed economies over the next two years.

The IMF's deputy managing director thinks it's commendable. And he gives the credit to China's economic reform.

"There are two major reasons. One is that we saw the Chinese government's determination and commitment to structural reform, and they took actions. The second is that we saw that the stimulus policies are taking effect. The stimulus will have a medium- to long-term effect. Therefore, we not only increased this year's forecast from 6.3 percent to 6.5 percent. We also increased next year's forecast from 6.0 percent to 6.2 percent," Zhu said.

Zhu Min says the IMF's conclusion on China's fundamentals comes from their monitoring of key indexes and research of policies.

"We take into consideration both internal and external indexes. For instance, internally, we pay attention to Purchasing Manager's Index and Producer Price Index, or PMI and PPI. We also look at the investment and consumption of the construction and housing industries. I think these indexes are important internal indexes. Externally, we attach importance to the influence of global economic needs on China's needs," Zhu said.

Zhu says that it's important to maintain a stable economy, which means there should not be excessive stimulus. And the IMF thinks the GDP growth of 6.5 percent is reasonable.

"We are also monitoring whether the policy trends fit the overall economic development. In China's case, we think the GDP growth rate of 6.5 percent is in accordance with today's potential economic growth. In a sense, there should not be excessive stimulus, otherwise, it will bring negative effects and possible drops in the future. Therefore, it's a priority to deepen reforms, consolidate the foundation of economic growth, and enhance confidence, so as to keep a stable economy," Zhu said.

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