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Experts' views on July CPI & PPI data


08-09-2016 16:22 BJT

The CPI and PPI are important references for the central bank's monetary policy. What does the July data imply? What will be the central bank's next move? Experts share their views.

"CPI will probably grow 1.8 percent in July. I think inflation is still under control. The Producer Product Index will improve compared with last month, which reflects a rise in commodities prices and a recovery of industrial profits," said Wan Zhao, senior analyst, China Merchants Bank.

"The central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio. That's because of the pressure of the exchange rate. A massive monetary easing program is inappropriate. The central bank will replenish the reduction in monetary base due to a fall in the counterpart of foreign exchange reserves via market communications and liquidity injection."
"At this moment, Chinese economy is stable. GDP in both the first and second quarters grew 6.7 percent, which means an easing downward pressure. If we look at liquidity, that's very adequate. The interbank rate has been declining since last year. Under these circumstances, the central bank maintains a prudent monetary policy," said Liu Xuezhi, senior analyst, Bank of Communications.

"It is unlikely that the central bank will cut interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio as frequently as last year. Inflation is expanding slowly and won't have any impact on monetary policy. With that premise, the central bank will not have to worry about a surge in price levels when deciding monetary policies."

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