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Thailand's H1 GDP growth better than expected, outlook sluggish

Reporter: Tony Cheng 丨 CCTV.com

08-17-2016 00:42 BJT

Thailand's recently announced GDP figures showed that the nation experienced better than expected growth in the first two quarters of 2016. A much needed rise in agricultural prices and consumer spending, pushed growth to three point five percent for  the second quarter, well over the three percent that had been expected. Ironically a rise in tourist spending had also contributed to  the rise, but after the bombings across the south of Thailand, tourism may be less robust.

The picture may be looking good, but the outlook is far from rosy. This Hua Hin artist depends on trade from passing tourists. But the recent bombings have cleared the streets outside his gallery. The only passers by now are security volunteers. Checking for explosive devices.

"It will create an impact, which could be a lot, could be not much. But without doubt some of the tourists will be scared," said a man named Aourd Srisamai.

And on a busy weekend, in one of Thailand’s largest resort towns, most of the people on the beach are locals. 

Tourism is incredibly important to the Thai economy, worth about 7% of GDP, that’s more than $16 billion dollars its estimated. But with targeted attacks like this, the tourists are starting to look elsewhere, and that could be a huge problem, especially here in  the south, where tourism is the main industry.

Ironically, a rise in tourist spending had helped Thailand overcome gloomy expectations for GDP in the second quarter of  2016. And a short term boost in the markets, followed the result of last weeks referendum, which suggested a period of  stability and continuity. Although long term questions remain about future political instability.

But despite a crippling drought, and a massive oversupply of the countries main crop, rice, after several years of  being hit by high inflation and low prices, Thai farmers are starting to see profits.

And consumer spending, which for many Thai’s has been on hold since the military coup, is now responsible for  GDP growth of 3.5 percent in the second quarter.

"With oil prices rebounding, agricultural prices have come up quite a bit, so that helps alleviate the concern, or at least boost the  confidence in consumption," said Pipat Luengnaruemichai, Phatra Securities PCL.

The Thai economy is not yet out of the woods, however. The military government has shown little expertise when it comes to managing the nations finances. And exports, one of Thailand’s key indicators, remain in decline.

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