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China's GDP expected to hit target, yuan to weaken

Reporter: Laura Luo 丨 CCTV.com

12-04-2016 06:31 BJT

Economists at the 7th Caixin Summit in Beijing have peered through their crystal balls to see where the Chinese economy is headed in 2017.

As the end of the year approaches, the Chinese government will soon hold its economic work conference for next year. However, while China may be on track to reach this year's growth target, property market activity is expected to weaken.

"Annual number won't be too far away from 6.7 percent," said Huang Yiping, Prof. of Economics, National School of Dev't, Peking University.

Huang said, however, there are still some factors that could hinder economic growth. For instance, China's emerging industries are not robust enough to fill the shoes left by the old, traditional ones that are on their way out due to overcapacity.

"The transition is happening, but the new industries are not big enough to support growth. So I think next year the economy is still facing downward pressure," said Huang Yiping.

Another aspect that draws the world's attention to the year-end is the Chinese currency. As the U.S Federal Reserve contemplates whether to raise its interest rate in December, pressure on the Chinese yuan exchange rate against the dollar is mounting.

"Chinese currency is expected to continue to fall if the US dollar continue to strengthen. We appreciate against other currencies," said Cao Yuanzheng, Chairman of BOCI research.

As central banks around the world see monetary policies losing their effect, will we see a tendency for competitive currency depreciation?

"The risk is there," said Cao Yuanzheng.

However, Cao said the recent focus on the amount of capital leaving China was aimed at calming the currency fluctuation before the year-end. He also pointed out, that in the long-run, investment yield in China would still be higher than that in the US, if the dollar appreciation was capped at no more than 3 percent against the yuan.

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